Next Soarable Ed Levin?

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peterj
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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby peterj » Thu Apr 21, 2016 12:02 pm

Hope Thursday is half as good as Wednesday was.

gerrypez
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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby gerrypez » Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:42 pm

Thursday was 1/2 as good as Wednesday, times 2.
https://youtu.be/QDEXnVYrNrs

Karl_A
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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby Karl_A » Tue May 03, 2016 2:17 pm

Wednesday 5/4/16

Good but not epic, wind SSW 9-11 morning and mid day, SW 15-23 in the afternoon. XC Skies predicts top of usable lift 3-4000 msl.

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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby Karl_A » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:34 pm

Monday 9/12/16

NWS http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/displ ... tr&pil=afd says

'A system will drop down from the north and bring cooler than normal temperatures to our region over the next several days.

No mention of 'upper level'. What could it all mean? Barely scratchable due to a deep marine layer, or enough lapse rate to be decently soarable? Tomorrow morning's sounding will give a clue.

The sounding didn't look that good. Maybe tomorrow - tuesday 9/13.

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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby Karl_A » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:40 am

Tuesday 9/13/16

Looks good. WoR Soaring Fx and Dr. Jack's Diablo Blipspot agree top of lift will be about 4100 msl.

http://www.wingsofrogallo.org/weather/scast.html
http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/SPOT/FCST/mtdiablo.txt

Ed Levin tabular forecast says wind light and south.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... pe=digital

Wind was south but not light, up to 20 on launch. Too south to be ridge soarable but plenty of lapse rate and thermals. Cloudbase rose above 4500 msl at 2 pm and cloud coverage increased, reducing the turbulence but by then the ground was warm enough to still make good thermals. The clouds looked like the wind above the clouds was east and sure enough the afternoon - 5 pm PDT - sounding had 16 knots at 100 degrees at 5000 msl and 19 knots at 80 degrees at 6000 msl.

The Fall Ed Levin Soaring Season has officially begun.

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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby Karl_A » Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:25 pm

Wednesday 9/31/16 through Monday 10/5/16 and beyond

NWS Forecast Discussion http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/displ ... tr&pil=afd says

widespread cooling Wednesday into Thursday ... mid/upper level TROUGH deepens ... deeper marine influence ... Further cooling Friday into next weekend ... secondary/reinforcing TROUGH Saturday night into the following week.

What could it all mean?!??

As the NWS says, Stay tuned.

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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby bdunn » Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:09 pm

I'm think Tomorrow (thursday afternoon) looks good.
Good enough for a half day off work I reckon !
I'll be there a little after 12pm.
Sunset 6:30 so out of LZ time 5:30pm
Math looks good to me.

Ben.

Karl_A
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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby Karl_A » Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:24 pm

Thursday 10/13/16

Wednesday afternoon NWS Forecast Discussion says

A potent, early season storm system remains on track to impact the region from late this week into the weekend. Widespread rainfall is most likely to begin over the North Bay late Thursday and spread through the remainder of the region on Friday. Light rain is forecast to begin over the North Bay as early as Thursday afternoon and will increase in coverage and intensity late in the night.

First real prefrontal complete with rain. Timing looks good, little chance of rain in till south bay till friday morning. Ed Levin tab forecast says SSW 7 mid day to SW 8 afternoon. Certainly flyable, might get soarable. WoR Soaring Forecaster + 5 am sounding (12 UTC) tomorrow morning will give a better sense of what will really happen.

Thursday morning forecast is much the same, though NWS is now saying

The one change of note is timing has slightly slowed the advance of the rain into SF Bay.

That means if it does get soarable it will be later in the day. At 9:15 am thursday the Windslammer says 'Wind: NW at 72 - 72 mph, average 72 mph' but as Uncle Colin noted, that data may have some error in it since the the video shows the sock limp. WoR Soaring Forecaster has the -3 level aka top of usable lift at 2500 msl, but the lapse rate usually gets better as the front approaches. Forecast remains the same: Certainly flyable, might get soarable, not likely to be epic.

Certainly did get flyable, with extended sled rides, but not really soarable. WindSlammer still stuck on 72 mph.

'Check that wind, it don't change. Stay seventy-two come shine or rain.'

Extra credit for anyone who can say where that came from.
Last edited by Karl_A on Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby uncle_colin » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:32 am

The windslammer sez "North at 72". But that is merely marxist islamist establishment media propoganda, so don't believe it.

Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem

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Re: Next Soarable Ed Levin?

Postby Karl_A » Sat Oct 22, 2016 8:32 pm

Sunday and Monday, 10/23-24/16

Sunday might be good, Monday predicted to be windy, slight chance of rain.


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